June 16, 2016
Legal Acrobatics "In Praise of the Probability Test" - Comments and Criticism
Dr. Zvi Gabbay, Head of the Capital Markets Department at Barnea - Legal Acrobatics "In Praise of the Probability Test" - Comments and Criticism was mentioned in the recent ruling of the Supreme Court relating to the question of what knowledge is required to establish a Reporting Duty for a Company.
Dr. Zvi Gabbay’s article critically examined the Africa Israel ruling, which was adopted by the Economic Department of the Tel Aviv District Court, stating that the relevant test for deciding whether the information fits into the definition of "inside information" is the "test of expectation".
The Court had to decide whether the information during negotiations for a transaction had matured into "inside information" (which prevents a person having such information from trading securities, for as long as such information has not been reported to the investing public).
The "test of expectation" used by the judges of the Economic Department provides that in order to determine whether a particular event in the life of the corporation is material, the probability of the event should be weighed against its expected impact on the corporation. In other words, the stronger the anticipated event is for the corporation and its business, the more information about it will be material, even if the probability of occurrence of the event is low, and vice versa.
In his article, Dr. Zvi Gabbay highlighted the problem of "excessive regulation" taking place in the market, and the need to equip the capital market with practical tools that will enable the supervised bodies to deal appropriately with the reporting duties imposed on them by the Securities Authority.
The solution to this issue, according to Dr. Zvi Gabbay, lies in the development of the "agreement in principle" test. According to this test, information on a transaction will be material and must be reported only when agreement has been reached between the parties with regard to the main details of the transaction. The "agreement in principle" test will provide the supervised bodies with an easier, simpler, and more convenient tool for assessing the information related to their ongoing activity, while increasing certainty in the market.